Sunday, January 14, 2018

Weekly report January 13, 2018

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.   Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   January 13, 2018

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

As most experts had predicted, the USDA WASDE report this week was bearish for corn and soybeans but the bearish numbers for winter wheat did come as a surprise. With winter wheat it seems that farmers in the US just planted a lot more than had been expected.

 

Some experts are saying that the soybean supply numbers are not really bearish as the USDA numbers were actually lower than what some private forecasters had expected. This was reflected in futures prices after the report with both soybeans and soymeal moving higher. There is some feeling in trade reports this weekend that soybean prices will move higher from this level.

 

Corn was lower on the week following the USDA report that showed larger US production and stocks coupled with larger world stocks of corn. The USDA didn't change their previous Argentina and Brazil corn numbers. The USDA shows corn yields at record levels which is something that is not always possible – too much can happen to change yield levels and we are only in January.

 

Looking at the market reaction to the WASDE report: not much happened to corn prices – down by less than USD 1 after the report but down by about USD 2 m/t on the week, soybeans were up by almost USD 4 m/t after Friday's report with soymeal up by the same (both soybeans and soymeal were still down by USD 5 to 8 m/t on the week).

 

Wheat prices were the most affected by the WASDE with prices for all types of wheat dropping by USD 4 to 6 m/t following the report.

 

Experts seem to feel that there is room for soybeans and soymeal to move higher with corn also probably trending a little higher but not as much as soybeans. Wheat looks like it could be trending lower – depending on the US winter weather and the levels of expected winter frost kill.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$18/19.00

Steady

X

US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Up $1.00

X

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Steady

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)

$28/29.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$31/32.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$40/41.00

Steady

X

US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)

$31/32.00

Steady

X

US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t

$38/39.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$43/44.00

down $1.00

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$42/43.00

down $1.00

X

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$25/26.00

Steady

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$24/25.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$46/47.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$40/41.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$13/14.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Down $1.00

X

France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)

$23/24.00

Down $1.00

X

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)

$10/11.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$21/22.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$30/31.00

Down $1.00

X

France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Steady

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$45/46.00

Down $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$40/41.00

up $1.00

X

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$41/42.00

up $1.00

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$26/27.00

up $2.00

X

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Up $1.00

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t

$47/48.00

Steady

X

Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Up $2.00

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t

$21/22.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t

$28/29.00

Steady

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$34/35.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t

$22/23.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$36/37.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$24/25.00

Up $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$20.50/21.00

Steady

X

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip

$20.00/20.50

Steady

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

X

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$11/12.00

Steady

X

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$30/31.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$12/13.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)

$13/14.00

Down $1.00

X

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$30/31.00

Steady

X

Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$55/56.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$17/18.00

up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$25/26.00

up $1.00

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t

$13/14.00

Steady

X

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1279

Down 92

x

Baltic Capesize Index

2296

Down 495

X

Baltic Panamax Index

1348

Down 52

X

Baltic Supramax Index

907

Up 23

X

Baltic Handisize Index

587

Down 13

x

 

 

 

 


 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2018/March 2018

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 180/183

X

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA

 USD 204/208  

x

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 176/179

x

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 187/191

x

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 191/195

x

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 195/197

x

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver

 USD 173/177

x

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 176/179

x

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 191/193

x

   Barley, feed, Argentina

 USD 177/180

X

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 187/191

X

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

 USD 219/224

x

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 162>>159

x

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 172>>169

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 162/165

x

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 163/167 June/July

X

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 190/196

x

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 173/176

X

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 163/166

X

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 166/169

X

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 168/172

X

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 198/201

X

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 348/353

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 373/378

X

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 370/373

X

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 336/340

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 362/366

X

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 317/320 July/August

X

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 368/372

X

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 354/358

X

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 371/375

x

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 377/380

X

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 605 Jan>>590 Mar m/t  

X

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 165 Jan>>150 Mar m/t

x

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 205 Jan>>192 Mar m/t

x

 

 

 

 

Nearby prices for all corn by-products (DDGS, corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed) are strong due almost totally to current US export logistic problems plus some increase in US domestic demand. But as you can see from the prices above, the spot prices are considerably higher than the price out a little into the future.

 

It is interesting to see that while export prices are very strong the US domestic prices tend to be steady to lower. The USDA shows corn gluten meal domestic prices levels down by USD 10 m/t while corn gluten feed and DDGS prices are steady. Just shows you how export logistics complications can drive prices higher.

 

Buyers need to book March or April shipment at lower price levels or pay the much higher price for earlier shipment.

 

USA corn by-product exports – January to November 2017 – in m/t

Major destinations

 

Destination

Distillers Dried Grains

DDGS

 

Corn Gluten Feed

Corn Gluten Meal

Australia

 

 

4,800

Bangladesh

113,100

 

3,300

Cambodia

53,200

 

 

Canada

648,600

 

54,900

Chile

18,500

 

119,500

China

355,700

 

 

Colombia

195,000

33,800

83,200

Costa Rica

80,400

 

 

Denmark

 

 

8,600

Egypt

137,800

16,900

99,500

El Salvador

52,900

 

7,500

Guatemala

49,300

 

10,500

Honduras

44,600

 

7,000

Indonesia

652,300

 

207,300

Ireland

323,100

341,000

 

Israel

250,500

197,500

5,200

Japan

408,600

 

4,900

Malaysia

67,500

 

14,100

Mexico

1,980,800

35,900

25,000

Morocco

229,600

58,800

 

Myanmar

32,300

 

 

New Zealand

157,000

10,000

 

Pakistan

42,500

 

 

Panama

17,800

 

 

Peru

16,700

 

8,600

Philippines

125,500

 

2,000

Portugal

55,700

32,100

 

Saudi Arabia

55,700

 

 

South Korea

857,700

 

 

Spain

297,700

5,500

 

Sri Lanka

32,100

 

 

Taiwan

241,900

 

30,100

Thailand

663,200

 

40,900

Tunisia

10,000

 

 

Turkey

1,351,900

248,000

 

UK

213,300

62,700

 

Vietnam

219,300

 

6,300

 

 

 

 

Total all exports

10,108,700

1,044,500

750,700

@USDA-FAS

 

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Australian MBM 45% protein

   Australian MBM 50% protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 900/910 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein

  

   USA Feathermeal, 80% protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 410/430 to Indonesia

 USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 880/890 m/t CNF Asia

 

Meat and bone meal prices into major markets in Asia were a little higher this week probably due mainly to good demand against a steady supply level. Demand is probably being helped along somewhat by the lack of availability of Peruvian fishmeal and the buyers needs to book some protein supplies.

 

There seems to be a feeling in the trade reports that supply is moving higher quicker than demand which could result in prices falling a little further in coming weeks. No one seems to expect a serious drop in animal protein prices, but chances look better for steady to lower prices rather than higher.

 

USA domestic prices are weakening due to good supply and this will move into the US export price levels.

 

 

USA animal protein exports – January to November 2017 – in m/t

Major destinations

 

Destination

Meat and bone meal

Including pork

 and poultry meal

Feathermeal

Canada

61,800

17,400

Cambodia

5,000

 

Chile

 

10,900

China

41,200

17,600

Ecuador

7,600

 

Germany

3,900

 

Honduras

3,700

 

Indonesia

145,500

27,300

Malaysia

6,700

 

Mexico

514,400

 

Peru

5,200

 

Philippines

4,400

 

Thailand

15,000

 

Vietnam

28,800

 

 

 

 

Total all

exports

854,700

75,100

@USDA-FAS

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Well, fishing has been back on in quite bit of Peru since January 7 with the daily catch level varying from 22,000 m/t up to 30,000 m/t. Of course, there are still fishing bans in some areas but at least fishing is going on. The program from the government was to fish from January 7 to 11 and if fishing is ok then to just carry on. The latest word is that fishing will continue from the 12th but with further bans in place until the 14th of January.

 

The current fishing bans are once again due to the high level of juvenile fish in some areas Peru. Reports show that in Chimbote the juvenile percentage is at 80%.

 

Fishmeal stocks in China continue to drop and it is expected that Chinese buyers will shortly be out in force to cover their needs for next three or four months. Buyers are not too willing to book new business as we are only a few days into the fishing period and much can still happen. Sellers certainly don't want to have oversold their fishmeal supply, so are being very careful.

 

As usual China is still the most important destination for Peruvian fishmeal with 80% of fishmeal exports going to China. If you include other Asian destinations in the export numbers, then Asia represents close to 93% of all Peru fishmeal exports. Only Chile and Germany are significant destinations outside of Asia and they only represent 3.5% of exports.  

 

Both buyers and sellers will be watching fishing very closely in coming days and then one can certainly expect a flurry of buying from China.

 

As to prices, this week seems steady at last week's levels.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

 

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,760

down $20

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,575

Up $15

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,550

Up $5

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,600

Up $5

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,795

Up $10

 

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein 

1500/1520 m/t

 

   65/66 protein

1550/1600 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1650/1670 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1850/1870 m/t

No prices

   67% protein 120 TVN

1900/1920 m/t

No prices

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1950/1970 m/t

1950/2000

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

2000/2020 m/t

2000/2050

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

2000/2050

1500/1600

   Fish oil, crude drums

2100/2150

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

2200/2250

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

No prices

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon