Saturday, February 23, 2013

Weekly report -- Feb 23, 2013

 

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd  - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   February 23, 2013

                                                       (a Bahamas Corporation)

 

 

France:  Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564    Fax: 33.4.5774.7575

13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com       SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

 

SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

It was an up and down week this week with both corn and wheat sliding lower while soybeans and soymeal moved higher. Much of the activity in the USA market was as a result of the USDA Outlook Conference and the numbers for crops and such that were discussed there.

 

On the corn side of things the USDA is expecting about the same corn planting as last year and with the estimated yield at a good average level then the 2013 crop could be very good and prices, according to the USDA, could drop by close to 35 percent come the end of the next season.  Based on today's prices that could be a price drop of as much as USD 95 m/t – certainly a very significant price drop.  Of course, if you look at the current USA futures prices you will see that September/December prices already reflect much lower corn prices, so the USDA comments are just confirming what the market is already expecting.

 

None the less, barring bad weather and other disasters, 2013 looks to be another record or close to record crop year for USA corn production --- lets just hope that with the lower prices it will be very competitive in world corn markets.

 

Soybeans and soymeal were higher on the week although on Friday both markets took a bashing and dropped much lower on the day.  Without this Friday drop the prices would have been much higher on the week. There does not seem to be any one factor that pushed prices down – just a bunch of bearish items:  rain in Argentina, higher USDA expected yields, some new China business.  But with Brazil looking to have some serious export delays (as usual every year) and quite good demand for limited available supplies then it does not look like prices are in for much of a drop lower at present.

 

Looking at the USDA Outlook Conference, ending soybean stocks for 2012/13 are still expected to be low with stock levels improving in 2013/14 but with increased stock levels come lower prices and 2013/14 prices are expected to be down by close to 30 percent from current levels – but then 2013 /14 is still quite a way off.

 

For the time being, on soybeans, there is still some tightness in supply and prices should remain reasonably firm until we get good supplies flowing out of South America.  

   

FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

USD 291>>285  

Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

USD 323/326   

Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro

USD no availability

Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port

USD 324/326

Wheat, milling, Argentina, Necochea port

USD 350/360 Mar/May

Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 315/320

Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 296/299

Barley, feed, Argentina, Necochea port

USD 295/305 Mar/May

Barley, feed, Black Sea

USD 317/325

Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

USD 330/335

 

 

Corn, FOB NOLA USA

USD  297>>292 Mar>>May

Corn, FOB Argentina ----- spot price

USD  270/272 Feb/Mar

Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD  267>>264  Apr/Jun

Corn, FOB Brazil port ----- spot price

USD  283/285 Feb/Mar

Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD  250>>239  July/Aug

Corn, FOB Black Sea

USD  290/300 

Corn, FOB France

USD  299/301

Sorghum, Black Sea

USD  n/a

Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free

USD  301/303  

Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free

USD  asked 230/bid 220 Apr/June

 

 

Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA

USD  525/528  March

Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD  547/550 March

Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

USD  558>>480 Mar/>>/J/J  

Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina

USD  498>>453  Mar/>>/J/J  

Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

USD  546>>475 Mar/>>/J/J   

Soymeal, FOB Brazil

USD  471>>458  May/>>J/J    

Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB

USD  550/555

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

Corn Gluten Feed,  USA FOB NOLA

USD   278/280 m/t  

Corn Gluten Meal,  USA FOB NOLA

USD   690/700 m/t 

DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD   338>>328 m/t Mar>>May  

DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports

USD   393>>388 m/t 

 

There is some weakening in DDGS prices looking out a few weeks as corn prices are expected to continue to fall and production of ethanol could pick up a little with lower corn cost and better margins.  It is reported in the trade that Asian buyers are trying to book DDGS supplies for later in the year at significantly lower prices but producers are not all that willing to book distant positions at discounted prices as there is still too much uncertainty in the corn market.  In the USA the DDGS buyers are buying more as they need in order not to pay too much in what they see as a falling market.  But, for buyers in Asia, who have to buy then wait several weeks for shipment arrival, there is no chance to buy hand to mouth, they have to take a buying position and hope that it is correct.

 

Corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal prices were both steady this week with corn gluten meal not knowing whether it should go lower on slipping corn prices or move higher following soymeal prices. In the long run, since CGM is 60 percent protein, the price of soymeal will probably have the largest effect on prices as protein buyers are always alert to any protein bargains and CGM will not get too low priced before demand will jump.

 

As to corn gluten feed – it is just chugging along, following corn lower. 

 


 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

USD 690/710  CNF Asia

Brazil Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

USD   no prices   CNF Asia

Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia

Europe Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

USD  470/500 m/t CNF Asia

USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

USD 750/775 m/t CNF Asia

Australian MBM , 45 protein

USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia

Australian MBM, 50 protein

USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia

Australian Feathermeal

USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia

USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia

USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

USD 740/750 m/t CNF Asia

USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

USD 1130/1170 m/t CNF Asia

Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade

USD 980/1020 m/t CNF Asia

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein

USD  460/480 m/t   

Feathermeal  80 protein USA

USD  690/720 m/t          

Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA

USD  570/600 m/t  

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Prices for lower grades of fishmeal seem to have slipped a little this week and last – perhaps with China having been out of the market. However there are still no discounted prices for higher grades as with only about 30,000 m/t of unsold fishmeal available there is very limited supply of better grades.

 

China is now back to work and there have been a few bits of buying interest in the market but with China stocks still quite good and the main aqua season a few weeks away there seems to be no rush to place new orders.

 

European fishmeal supplies are still lower priced than Peruvian which has reduced buying interest from Europe and with the recent change in fishing laws relating to fish discard use in fishmeal production then we could see increased future production in Europe.

 

There are lots of rumours in the market in Peru as to what the next fishing quota will be with a very wide range of guesses floating in the market ---- but these are all only guesses.

 

MSI Ceres of Peru had some very good comments on the future of fishmeal in their report this week. They were pointing out how the growth in the market for all fish as food is going to reduce the production of fishmeal in years to come. They are also saying that the much improved handling of caught fish means that a higher quantity can now be used as food grade rather than fishmeal grade which reduced the raw materials for fishmeal.

 

There is probably never going to be any major growth in the world fishmeal supply, although there are increases in non-traditional fishmeal producing countries, and over the years we have seen fishmeal become less and less important in feed formulations, as lower cost alternatives have been found.  However the fact still is that every year, every ton of fishmeal produced is sold – no matter what the price – there is just so much growth in animal feed and aquaculture feed production levels (including pet food) that even at lower inclusion levels there is still enough demand to use all available fishmeal.  

  

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

 

 

FAQ basis 65 protein

No quotes

65/66 pro standard steam

1650/1670 m/t

67 protein standard steam

1700/1720 m/t

67 protein SD 150  TVN

1800/1820 m/t

67 protein SD 120 TVN

1950/1970 m/t

67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN

2050/2060 m/t

68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN

2100/2130 m/t

 

 

Fish oil .. crude bulk

2600/2650

Fish oil – crude drums

2700/2750

Fish oil – flexitank

2650/2700

Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA

3000/3500

 

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete.  Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy.  All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon