Sunday, July 28, 2013

Fw: Weekly Report -- July 27, 2013

 

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd  - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   July 27, 2013

                                                                       

 

France:  Rep. Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

13+220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

UK:   Rep. Office    +44.131.208.0308    Mobile: +44.7762.640.270

Suite 143, 196 Rose Street, Edinburgh EH2 4AT, Scotland, United Kingdom.

 

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com       SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

 

SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

The last trading month of old crop corn – September futures – took quite hit this week as prices dropped by about USD 20 m/t while most new crop months were only down by about USD 10 m/t.  It is reaching the point now where there is almost no spread between old crop and new crop corn.

 

Corn prices were down by a little every day this week and most of the price drop was due to the good weather that is seen in much of the corn growing areas of the USA. Pricing experts are saying that if the good weather continues we could see corn price drop another USD 20 m/t for new crop corn. However, there are also some experts who feel that corn will not go much lower and will only be up a little down a little for now until we get some new crop information or a major change in the weather situation.  At this moment everything looks perfect for the corn crop for the next 10 days to 2 weeks.

 

But just to shake things up a little, the Ukraine has sent a container of corn to China for their review, analysis and inspection.  China is going to take quite a lot of Ukraine corn this year but had been expected to be a reseller of Ukraine corn into Africa and Middle Eastern markets – perhaps the situation has changed and China will be much more interested in Ukraine corn for use in China.  

 

As to the corn crop quality for next week – no changes expected –at least nothing significant.

 

Old crop soybeans and soymeal took quite a whack this week and with another week like this we will see the end of the old crop priced just like the new crop.  However we do still have a USD 25 m/t premium for old crop soymeal and even a little more for old crop soybeans.

 

The weather for soybean looks good too but there are some areas where there appears to be a serious lack of rain and this could keep prices from sliding any lower.  For now though we look to be having ideal weather in a very large portion of the soybean area and this should stop prices from moving nay higher.

 

As with corn, the crop quality report for next week should hold no surprises. 

 

 

 

USA crop condition

Report 2013

July 13

Very poor

%

Poor

%

Fair

%

Good

%

Excellent

%

Corn

3

8

26

46

17

Last year

21

24

29

23

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

Soybeans

2

6

28

51

13

Last year

13

    22

34

27

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sorghum

6

11

38

38

7

Last year

15

25

34

20

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

USD 268/276 Aug/Oct  

Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

USD 313>>309 Aug/Oct  

Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro – 30,000 m/t

USD 240>>225 new crop

Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port

USD 250/253

Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver

USD 262/265 Dec/Jan new crop

Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 227>>220 new crop

Wheat bran, Black Sea

USD 205/210

Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 233/235

Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 232/245 Dec/Jan new crop

Barley, feed, Black Sea

USD 225>>215 new crop

Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

USD 275/278

 

Corn, FOB NOLA USA

USD 257>>231 Aug>>Oct new crop

Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

USD 306>>250 Aug>>Oct new crop

Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD  225/233  Aug/Sep

Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD  182/187  Aug/Sep

Corn, FOB Black Sea – 30,000 m/t

USD  245>>210  Aug>>new crop  

Corn, FOB France

USD  275/298 Aug

Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free

USD  246>>242 Aug>>Sep new crop  

Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free

USD  asked 200/bid 190 Aug/Sep

 

Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA

USD  560>>482 Aug>>Oct new crop

Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD  610>>515 Aug>>Oct new crop

Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

USD  590>>482 Spot>>A/S/O  

Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina

USD  482>>453  Aug>>Oct/Nov  

Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

USD  560>>461 Spot>>A/S/O   

Soymeal, FOB Brazil

USD  471>>430  Aug>>Oct/Nov   

Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB

USD  600/620

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

Corn Gluten Meal,  USA FOB NOLA

USD   685/690 m/t 

Corn Gluten Feed,  USA FOB NOLA

USD   195/200 m/t  

DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD   285/252 m/t Aug>>Oct  

DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports

USD   365>>332 m/t Aug>>Oct 

 

DDGS showed considerable price weakness this week as the new crop corn prices certainly helped to push October DDGS prices much lower. There is very little export demand for any nearby DDGS shipments – except very minimal quantities – as buyers cant see any sense in buying today when tomorrow is USD 30 m/t cheaper.  There seems to be a lineup of export buyers for Oct/Dec DDGS shipments but producers are a little hesitant to sell to much out very far just in case they get caught in a rally in corn prices.

 

Looking at longer term DDGS price indications, the market seems to think that corn prices will stay low and that DDGS will be very reasonably priced into 2014.  With USA corn futures prices at just under USD 5 per bushel (USD 196 m/t) it looks like DDGS could be a good low cost alternative for the feed industry.

 

Corn gluten feed is doing what it always does and is following corn prices lower while corn gluten meal was also lower on the week, mainly due to both corn and soymeal being lower on the week. 

 

As a bit of an aside, there was a very scholarly study published last week that looked at the historical price changes in DDGS versus the price changes in corn and established that there seemed to be a relationship between price changes in corn and price changes in DDGS.  I suppose that someone had to pay for a study to actually prove what we all knew.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

Paraguay Meat & Bone meal 48/50 protein

USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia

USD 570/580 mt CNF Asia

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia

Europe Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

Europe Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

USD  no prices

USD  no prices

Australian MBM 45 protein

Australian MBM 50 protein

Australian Feathermeal

Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade

USD 660/670 mt CNF Asia

USD 730/740 m/t CNF Asia

USD 730/740 m/t CNF Asia

USD 1040/1060 m/t CNF Asia

USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

USD 750/760 m/t CNF Asia

USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia

USD 750/760 m/t CNF Asia

USD 1050/1070  m/t CNF Asia

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein

USD  530/540 m/t   

Feathermeal  80 protein USA

USD  670/680 m/t          

Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA

USD  580/600 m/t  

 

Animal protein prices for the export market moved a little lower this week, at least from the USA.  USA suppliers report good shipment of MBM to Indonesia with CNF prices said to be a little lower than those shown in the table above.

 

When prices are weak in vegetable protein market buyers of animal protein hold off buying until all the prices even up, so with the ups and downs in vegetable protein in the past couple of week it is very difficult to get a good feel for exactly where all the prices are.

 

Longer term, most prices should move lower with soymeal but the market doesn't always do exactly what you expect and if fishmeal prices should suddenly move higher it might help to keep animal protein prices up.  

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Well, it looks like the full quota for the northern Peru fishing area, 2,050,000 m/t of fish, will be fully landed or close to by the end of July but things are not nearly as good with the 400,000 m/t southern quota as 280,000 m/t remain to be caught and fishing is not exactly setting the world on fire.

 

Reports from Peru show that the inventories on hand are getting down as decent new business is still in the market.  The estimates of unsold stocks is now getting close to only 100,000 m/t, which is very, very little to cover all needs until sometime in Nov/Dec.

 

The good export demand coupled with the dropping inventories has caused market prices to move about USD 30 m/t higher this week and as/if stocks continue to drop the price should move even higher.

It is also reported that stocks in China appear to have reached a low and that fishmeal prices are moving higher.  However, the aquafeed season is coming to an end in China so any additional import demand may not be as high as some exporters would like.

 

With major fishing coming to an end in Peru for several months it is expected that prices will tend to increase on the assumption that demand will continue and that the low inventory will not be able to meet all needs.

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

 ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

 

 

65 protein standard steam

1440/1450 m/t

65/66 pro standard steam

1470/1480 m/t

67 protein standard steam

1490/1500 m/t

67 protein SD 150  TVN

1520/1530 m/t

67 protein SD 120 TVN

1540/1550 m/t

67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1560/1590 m/t

68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN

1580/1600 m/t

 

 

Fish oil .. crude bulk

2100/2150

Fish oil – crude drums

2250/2300

Fish oil – flexitank

2200/2250

Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA

2700/2900

 

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete.  Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy.  All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon