Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 30, 2014
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
With this weekend being a long weekend in the USA – Labor Day holiday on Monday – the week ending prices are not always a 100% true reflection of the market, this as futures traders try to be very conservative in their open positions over a three day weekend – no one likes an extra day of risk. So, Friday's closing futures prices may just be a little out of whack.
Again this week, we saw an overall down week for most grains and oilseeds – corn prices were down by about USD 3 m/t FOB while soybeans dropped closer to USD 7 m/t and soymeal was off by USD 3 or 4 m/t. No startling weakness in the market but certainly no strength.
USA weather forecast remain quite good for the end of the crop season with some rain falling where it is needed and little or no risk of frost in any area, although temperatures are expected to move lower over the next couple of weeks.
The early corn harvest in the south of the USA is showing very good yields, some at record levels, and one wonders if these yields will be seen in other later harvesting corn areas. Not to ignore soybeans but the early southern harvest for beans is also showing some record levels. Crop experts are now saying that the USDA will have to increase their average yield levels in their next report and, of course, this could keep USA grain prices at their lows.
There was a comment in one of the trade reports that corn prices normally move lower after the USA Labor Day holiday on September 1st, one wonders how much lower prices can go in 2014.
Soybean export sales to China continue to chug along, with the sales to China giving the market at least a little support. Every expert that you read on soybeans seems to feel that prices are going to have to move lower, no matter the China effect, unless there is some significant bullish news out of Brazil and Argentina about their next crop. All the market news from the USA seems to be 100% bearish.
USA crop condition report – Aug 26, 2014 – all in percentages
France crop condition as of August 28, 2014
| Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good to excellent |
USA crop: |
|
|
|
|
Wheat - spring | 1 | 5 | 28 | 66 |
Corn | 2 | 5 | 20 | 73 |
Soybeans | 2 | 5 | 23 | 70 |
Sorghum | 2 | 9 | 31 | 58 |
|
|
|
|
|
French crop: | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good to excellent |
Wheat, soft | 1 | 7 | 21 | 70 |
Wheat, hard | 1 | 8 | 27 | 64 |
Corn | 1 | 3 | 11 | 85 |
Barley, winter | 2 | 7 | 20 | 71 |
Barley, spring | 2 | 10 | 26 | 62 |
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | steady | X |
US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch) | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t | $31/33.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $41.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $38/40.00 | Steady | X |
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
Brazil to Europe | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $40/43.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $43/45.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
Baltic Dry Index | 1147 | Up 59 | x |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2627 | Up 92 | x |
Baltic Panamax Index | 871 | Up 59 | X |
Baltic Supramax Index | 970 | Up 33 | X |
Baltic Handisize Index | 442 | Up 29 | x |
*** see sources note
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 252/262 Sep/Nov | X |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 285/299 Sep/Nov | x |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 232/238 Sep/Nov | X |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 243/249 Sep/Nov | x |
Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 235/237 Sep/Nov | x |
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 255/265 Dec/Jan 2015 | x |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 190/197 Sep/Nov | x |
Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 165/175 Sep/Nov | x |
|
|
|
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 207/209 Sep/Nov | X |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 223/227 Sep/Nov | x |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 210/215 Sep/Nov | x |
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 265/270 Sep/Nov | x |
|
|
|
Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 193/195 Sep/Nov | X |
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 204/206 Sep/Nov | x |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 179/184 Sep/Nov | X |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 171/176 Sep/Nov | X |
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182/186 Oct/Nov new crop | X |
Corn, FOB France | USD 220/228 Sep/Nov | X |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 190/195 Sep/Nov | x |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 220/223 Sep/Nov | x |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 148/155 Sep/Nov | x |
|
|
|
Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 550>>475 Sep>>Nov | X |
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 595>>525 Sep>>Nov | X |
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 515>>495 Sep>>Nov | X |
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 465>>425 Sep>>Nov | X |
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 505>>490 Sep>>Nov | X |
Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 448>>412 Sep>>Nov | X |
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 620/640 | X |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 444>>425 Sep>>Nov | X |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 470>>440 Sep>>Nov | X |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 485>>445 Sep>>Nov | X |
Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 495>>475 Sep>>Nov | X |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 420/440 Sep/Nov | x |
|
|
|
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 680/690 m/t Sep/Nov | x |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 175/180 m/t Sep/Nov | x |
Corn Gluten Feed, France, at producer | USD 215/220 m/t Sep/Oct | x |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 200/210 m/t Sep/Nov | X |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 250/254 m/t Sep/Nov | x |
DDGS corn, France, at producer | USD 285/290 m/t Sep/Oct | X |
DDGS corn, Rotterdam | USD 260/270 m/t Sep/Oct | X |
DDGS wheat, France, at producer | USD 295/298 m/t Sep/Oct | x |
*** see sources note
It was a little more difficult to get an accurate export price on DDGS this week, perhaps due to the long weekend in the USA, but probably more due to sellers trying to play the numbers close to their chest. Export business for all corn by-products seemed to be a little quiet this week.
Perhaps the biggest news for these products is the expected increases in container rates into Asia from the USA. According to the US Grains Council this week there will be a bump higher in November that could be followed by another increase in December. Others in the trade feel that container rates could see an overall increase of USD 10 to 15 m/t, which is quite a significant increase on low cost items like DDGS and corn gluten feed, not as serious on corn gluten meal – at least not as a percentage of total cost.
With everyone expecting corn prices to remain steady to lower, there seems to be little reason for these by-products to increase in price – the higher protein items like DDGS and CGM are being pressured even more by the falling prices for soymeal. So, other than freight there seems to be little reason at present to expect any higher CNF prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia |
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
European MBM 50 protein European Feathermeal, 75 protein European poultry meal | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 770/780 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 580/590 m/t CNF Asia USD 640/660 m/t CNF Asia USD 840/850 m/t CNF Asia USD 1030/1050 m/t CNF Asia |
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia USD 880/890 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/790 m/t CNF Asia USD 950/1000 m/t CNF Asia |
*** see sources note
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 490/520 m/t |
Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 720/740 m/t |
Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 660/680 m/t |
*** see sources note
Meat and bone meal prices look to be tending lower from most origins this week as vegetable protein prices move lower and put additional price pressure on animal proteins. However, while MBM may be weaker, both feathermeal and poultry meal (even pet food grade) have kept their price levels better than MBM, but experts say that a drop in both feather meal and poultry meal will be coming too.
USA domestic prices were lower this week, as were Australian and New Zealand prices, but there was really not too much weakness as yet in the export price levels as producers try to keep prices up but this won't last long.
According to one trade report the CNF prices in Asia for MBM have dropped by about USD 40 m/t in the past month or so and MBM is getting down to its low for 2014.
There certainly does not appear to be any reason at present for animal protein prices to move higher but a change in demand, as quite often happens with feathermeal, can quickly change the situation.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
It is very quiet in the fishmeal business in Peru. The stocks of fishmeal remain quite good, except Prime and Super Prime but buyers don't seem to be in much of a hurry to cover future needs. While there has been no official drop in prices, the market says that sellers will probably look at bid at USD 30 m/t below the current price levels – anything to get a little volume going. If some decent business does not appear then the "official" trade prices will be slipping lower, at least the lower grades.
Looking at the China import numbers this week it looks like Peru currently has just over 55% of the China fishmeal business with the balance of the business shared between 17 origins with Chile being the next largest after Peru but with only 9.5% or so of the business. China's fishmeal imports in 2014 are up by about 45% so far in 2014, at about 725,000 m/t to July, but shipments are expected to slack of somewhat for the balance of the year as the total fishmeal imports are expected to be around 1.1 million m/t. So that would be just under 400,000 m/t for the remaining 5 months, a good chunk of which should come from Peru.
The number one topic of conversation in the Peru fishmeal business seems to be the size of the next quota – with a very wide range of estimates. Of course, estimates mean very little since no one really knows what the government intends. The most popular number for the next fishing quota seems to be at the 2 million m/t level. So, now we just wait and see and we wait and hope for some fishmeal buying to appear.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,945 |
Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,738 |
Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,775 |
Chile fishmeal | 65 protein | 1,815 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,945 |
@Commodity3
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
|
|
65 protein | 1720/1730 m/t |
65/66 protein | 1750/1760 m/t |
67 protein standard steam | 1800/1820 m/t |
67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1820/1840 m/t |
67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1840/1860 m/t |
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1860/1880 m/t |
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1880/1900 m/t |
|
|
Fish oil, crude bulk | 1900/2000 |
Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2200 |
Fish oil, flexi tank | 2050/2150 |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2700 |
*** see sources note
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:
US Grains Council --- www.grains.org, International Grains Council – www.igc.int
US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org , France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr
EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm, Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/
Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com, The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com
MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com, International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.
And many, many, many more
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon