Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 29, 2014
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
For many in the US this was a very short work week with many companies being closed on both Thursday and Friday for the US Thanksgiving holiday. Thanksgiving is actually on Thursday but it makes sense to close for both days…the employees certainly think so.
With the actual work week being so short it is hard to know if the changes in the market are true changes or just the result of there being limited buying and selling interest so that a few orders can have a big effect on market prices --- you see this also in the period between Christmas and New Year where very little business is normally done but prices can jump around like crazy.
For corn, there was very little change in either cash or futures prices. The corn harvest is all but completed and the recent snows will probably not have as much effect as some had thought. Farmers in the north of the USA see snow every year as they are finishing off the harvest, so it is not like this is the first time that it has ever happened.
Soybean prices slipped lower this week, mainly as the week ended, with experts saying that this could be due to the drop in crude oil while others are saying that good crop progress in South America was the cause --- and then there are other who say that the Friday drop in futures was due to very low volume causing strange things to happen in the market – which may just be the correct reason. We will have to see what happens to soymeal prices on Monday.
It was interesting to see that EU feed wheat is being shipped to a number of world markets in competition with corn – not too surprising as feed wheat supplies in the EU, especially France and the UK, are at very high levels and some world markets certainly can use low cost feed wheat.
We will see on Monday if the price action this week was real or just due to low volume. This week may just be a week that doesn't count.
USA crop condition report – November 24, 2014 – all in percentages
France crop condition as of November 25, 2014
|
| Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good to excellent | Harvested % |
| USA crop: |
|
|
|
|
|
| Corn |
|
|
|
| 94 |
| Soybeans |
|
|
|
| 95 |
| Sorghum |
|
|
|
| 96 |
| Spring Wheat |
|
|
|
| 100 |
| Winter Wheat | 1 | 5 | 34 | 60 | Planted 100% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| French crop: | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good to excellent |
|
| Corn | 0 | 0 | 10 | 90 | 98 |
| Wheat - soft |
|
| 7 | 93 | Planted 99% |
| Wheat – hard |
|
| 9 | 91 | Planted 88% |
| Barley - winter |
|
| 7 | 93 | Planted 100% |
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $19.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $48/49.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch) | $45/46.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch) | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch) | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch) | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $50/51.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $38/39.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 |
| x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $41.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $38/39.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $41/42.00 |
| x |
| Brazil to Europe | $26/27.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $45/46.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $46/47.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to China | $35/37.00 |
| X |
| Baltic Dry Index | 1153 | Down 171 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2151 | Down 887 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1120 | Up 65 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 986 | Up 44 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 491 | Up 29 | x |
*** see sources note
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR NOV 2014/JAN 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 259/263 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 287/291 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 237/242 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 253/257 | X |
| Wheat, Romania | USD 252/255 | X |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 230/232 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 226/228 | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 250/260 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 210/216 | X |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 190/200 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 215/221 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 194/201 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 208/213 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 240/245 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 193>>187 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 200>>195 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 187/190 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 193/197 | X |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 177/184 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 186/190 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 184/188 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 246>>241 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 155/160 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 495/501 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 524/530 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 490>>475 | X |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 445/450 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 480>>460 | X |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 435/440 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 640/650 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 425/432 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 390>>380 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 440>>433 | X |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 455>>440 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 415/425 | X |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 735/745 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 176/181 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 200/205 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 250/254 m/t | x |
*** see sources note
The corn co-product market was reasonably quiet this week – probably due to the shortened work week with many buyers and sellers closed both Thursday and Friday for the Thanksgiving Holiday period.
It is interesting to note that, in the two weeks, US DDGS production has reached the highest level of the year as has the corn gluten meal production. As a matter of information, the weekly DDGS, corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal production, as a byproduct of ethanol, are all at their yearly highs. Just over 105,000 m/t of byproducts are being produced every day: DDGS 94,000 m/t, CGF 10,000 m/t and CGM 1800 m/t.
Export demand for corn gluten meal is very strong and prices are expected to move higher in coming weeks, as export buyers stock up on CGM in place of expensive, unavailable fishmeal. There will probably not be any significant supplies of fishmeal for another 5 months or so which could keep CGM demand high and prices firm.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia |
|
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia |
|
| European MBM 45 protein European MBM 50 protein European Feathermeal, 75 protein European poultry meal, pet food grd | USD 375/385 m/t CNF Asia USD 415/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia USD 1050/10700 m/t CNF Asia | X X X x |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 580/590 m/t CNF Asia USD 620/630 m/t CNF Asia USD 870/880 m/t CNF Asia USD 1060/1080 m/t CNF Asia | X X X x |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 820/840 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia USD 1120/1170 m/t CNF Asia | X X X x |
*** see sources note
Meat and bone meal and poultry meal prices in Asia are moving higher quite quickly as buyers are looking for all alternatives to very high priced fishmeal. Experts are saying that CNF Asia prices are expected to remain quite strong over the next couple of months as demand for protein will have to be covered by animal proteins other than fishmeal.
Prices in the USA were also up this week due to a little dip in supply during a short work week but, as mentioned before, strong export prices are not reflected in the domestic market as exports are not a major factor in the US animal protein supply and demand.
With the US moving closer to the December holiday period, domestic buyers are covering their needs well in advance of the holidays so prices may be being pushed a little higher than would normally happen due to increased short term demand that will probably be followed by a period of much lower sales since end-users will be covered into Jan/Feb 2015.
So, at least on the export side there is little expectation of lower animal protein prices and higher prices would certainly seem to be in the cards.
Also, this week the government of Thailand approved 11 US meat and bone meal facilities for the export of non-ruminant MBM to Thailand. US suppliers expect that MBM business to Thailand could increase by 15 to 20% in coming months. Approved facilities are owned by: JBS Inc, APC Inc, Pilgrims Inc and Smithfields.
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 455/465 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 670/700 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 500/520 m/t |
| Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro | USD 790/810 m/t |
*** see sources note
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The word in Peru is that the exploratory biomass voyage has had quite bad results with a high level of juvenile fish and in some cases no fish – this does not look too good for a Dec/Jan fishing quota. Everyone in Peru seems to be resigned to having no quota for this period. Of course, the findings have not been officially released as yet and perhaps the stories are all wrong but that does not look to be too likely. However, there is another official test voyage in December that may come up with better results but, as we all know, even if there is a January quota, fishing in January is normally very difficult.
According to the trade there is almost no business in Peru at present, mainly due to high prices, but there is still said to be about 30,000 m/t of unsold fishmeal in various locations in Peru. This small supply will certainly be sold off very quickly if there is any official word that there will be no fishing in Dec/Jan.
Market Reports out of China show fishmeal prices moving higher very quickly and buyers switching to any alternate protein source, especially meat and bone meal or poultry meal, or just cutting the amount of fishmeal used in feed formulations.
MSI Ceres showed the October China fishmeal import numbers in their report this week and it is interesting to see that, for the month, the USA is the major supplier of fishmeal to China with over 35% of the business – up from the normal level of about 9%. Peru dropped from the year to date level of 51+% to just over 18% of the fishmeal imports
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 2,120 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,795 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 2,095 |
| Chile fishmeal | 65 protein | 2,145 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 2,200 |
@Commodity3
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
|
|
|
| 65 protein | 2100/2120 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 2120/2140 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 2150/2180 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 2200/2210 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 2350/2360 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2380/2390 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2400/2420 m/t |
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2500/2550 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2600/2650 |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3000/3100 |
*** see sources note
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:
US Grains Council --- www.grains.org, International Grains Council – www.igc.int
US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org , France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr
EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm, Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/
Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com, The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com
MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com, International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.
And many, many, many more
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon
