Sunday, December 28, 2014

Weekly report - Unsubscribe???

 
If you no longer want to receive the weekly Hammersmith Report, you have two methods to unsubscribe:
 
1 – drop me a note and I will remove you from the weekly list
 
2 – for those who receive my report via my blog – just click on the "unsubscribe" at the bottom of the report.
 
It is always annoying to receive emails that you don't want so feel free to unsubscribe if our report is not of value to you.
 
Thank you and have a happy New Year
 
Wayne Bacon
 
 
 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd -- Grain Trading
-------------------------
Corporate Office: Centre of Commerce 200B, 1 Bay St.,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas
-------------------------
Representation Office:
13+220 Quartier La Galine, St. Remy de Provence, France 13210
Phone: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
Fax: +33.4.5774.7575 SKYPE:.....bacon39A
WWW:.hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Email:.. tradegroup@hammersmith.biz,

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Sorry no report this week.

 
Due to being on holidays and a lack of updated information, there will be no weekly report this week.
 
Hopefully, all will be back to normal for next week.
 
Wayne Bacon
 
 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd -- Grain Trading
-------------------------
Corporate Office: Centre of Commerce 200B, 1 Bay St.,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas
-------------------------
Representation Office:
13+220 Quartier La Galine, St. Remy de Provence, France 13210
Phone: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
Fax: +33.4.5774.7575 SKYPE:.....bacon39A
WWW:.hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Email:.. tradegroup@hammersmith.biz,

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Fw: Russian exporters apply to postpone imposition of the export duties on grains until March 1, 2015

Russian exporters apply to postpone imposition of the export duties on grains until March 1, 2015

The National Association of Exporters of Agricultural Products (NAESP) applied to the Government of Russia to postpone imposition of the customs duties on grain exports until March 1, 2015. The reporting proposal was sent to Arkady Dvorkovich, Vice Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, on December 22.

According to the NAESP, delaying of the duties imposition will allow to exporters to fulfill all their obligations under the existing contracts, and enable all market participants to prepare for work in the new conditions.

Also, the NAESP noted that imposition of the duties is not contrary to the WTO rules, and such measures would allow providing the further stabilization of the market segment "as soon as possible."

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd -- Grain Trading
-------------------------
Corporate Office: Centre of Commerce 200B, 1 Bay St.,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas
-------------------------
Representation Office:
13+220 Quartier La Galine, St. Remy de Provence, France 13210
Phone: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
Fax: +33.4.5774.7575 SKYPE:.....bacon39A
WWW:.hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Email:.. tradegroup@hammersmith.biz,


 

Sunday, December 21, 2014

Weekly report -- Dec 21, 2014

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   December 21, 2014

 

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

I am a little late again this week but then who wants to work on a weekly report when you are sitting in the center of Florence, Italy. The narrative on the market may be a little sparse but all the price levels and freight costs have been updated as of the end of the week.

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

It was great to read that China has approved more US GMO traits and that the US could be back in the China corn business once again. No one really expects China to rush put and but gigantic supplies of US corn but it is nice to know that if/when China is back in the corn importing business then US corn can be part of the equation.

 

On the futures side on things, corn futures did trade higher a little on the week but certainly no major price increase as, on average, price may have gone up by only USD 1 m/t – so the China news did not shake the market too much --- but it might if new order for China started to roll in.

 

Looking at a number of trade reports this weekend, the feeling seems to be that corn prices can move lower in coming weeks with perhaps about USD 10 m/t room in the price, which is good news for buyers.

 

As a matter of information, the very details US Grains Council's 2014/15 Corn Harvest Quality report is available at:

 

http://grains.org/sites/default/files/USGC%20Harvest%20Report%2014%2015%20Final.pdf

 

On the soybean/soymeal side of things, prices slid lower this week with good growing weather continuing in South America and everyone looking at the lower price coming for South American exports of beans and meal. No one much wants to have to pay a high price for US beans/meal if they can wait until the South American supply is available. However, every week, there still seem to be a good number of export buyers for US beans and meal and it looks like they will be their up until the very day that Brazil/Argentina can actually ship some product.

 

Experts are saying that the US soybean prices have room for weakness but that the soymeal demand could continue and this may keep both beans and meal prices higher than one might expect – it seems that for now it is all a case of what soymeal will do.    

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$16.00

Down $1.00

x

US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

x

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Up $1.00

x

US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)

$34/35.00

Up $1.00

x

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT

$33/34.00

up $1.00

x

US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)

$34/35.00

up $1.00

x

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000

$34/35.00

up $1.00

x

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$49/50.00

Steady

x

US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000

$48/49.00

Steady

X

US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$37/38.00

Steady

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch)

$43/44.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch)

$42/43.00

Down $1.00

X

US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t

$36/37.00

Up $1.00

x

US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch)

$33/34.00

Up $1.00

X

US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch)

$30/31.00

up $1.00

x

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$43/44.00

Up $3.00

x

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$52/53.00

Up $1.00

x

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$24/25.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)

$30/31.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$38/39.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$45/46.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$35/36.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)

$30/31.00

up $1.00

X

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$31/32.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Saudi Arabia

$41.00

Steady

X

Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$29/30.00

Steady

X

Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Steady

X

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$35/36.00

steady

X

Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$33/34.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$23/24.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t

$25/26.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia

$41/42.00

Steady

x

Brazil to Europe

$26/27.00

Steady

X

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$31/32.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$19/21.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to East Med: coaster

$38/39.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t

$43/44.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$14/15.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$25/26.00

Up $1.00

x

Black Sea to China

$33/35.00

Down $1.00

x

Baltic Dry Index

803

Down 60

x

Baltic Capesize Index

488

Down 275

x

Baltic Panamax Index

907

Down 94

x

Baltic Supramax Index

917

Down 33

x

Baltic Handisize Index

497

Up 4

x

 

 

 

 

Bunkerworld fuel index

852

Down 70

x

*** see sources note

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR JAN 2015/MARCH 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 286>>281

x

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

 USD 294/297

x

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 245/251

x

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD no prices

x

   Wheat, Romania

 USD 265/268

x

   Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen

 USD 246/249

x

   Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen

 USD 241/244

x

   Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver

 USD 245/251 

x

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 220/225

x

   Wheat Bran, Black Sea

 USD 180/190

x

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 221/225

x

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

 USD 197/208

x

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 228/232

x

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

 USD 245/250

x

 

 

 

   Corn, FOB NOLA USA

 USD 192>>189

x

   Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 206>>203

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 200/204

x

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 193/197

x

   Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 186/191

x

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 182/189

x

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 186/190

x

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 262/266

x

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 200/205

x

 

 

 

   Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 485/500  

x

   Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 530/545

x

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 475/465

x

   Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 430/440

x

   Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 470/460

x

   Soymeal, FOB Brazil

 USD 420/435

x

   Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB

 USD 620/640

x

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 420/430

x

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 390>>380

x

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 430>>425

x

   Soybeans, Rotterdam

 USD 456>>440

x

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 415/420

x

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   720/730 m/t

x

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   165/170 m/t

x

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD   260/265 m/t

x

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia

 USD   310/315 m/t

x

*** see sources note

 

The big news this week has been the much discussed effect of the change in China's GMO rules on DDGS exports. New reports say that as much as 900,000 m/t of DDGS may have been booked for China shipment over the next three months. Some traders are saying that the export price today for2015 shipment could be as high as USD 300 m/t, which is USD 40 m/t higher than the price level I show above. It will probably take a few more days, perhaps into January due to the holidays, to get a good handle on exactly what has happened and where the DDGS price actually is. However, looks like the days of bargain prices for DDGS are now over, 'cause the big guy is back buying.

 

It is interesting to see that as DDGS races higher the NOLA prices for both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed have slipped lower. I would have expected that CGM price would have stayed strong due to the demand from fishmeal buyers and the difficulties in getting and CGM shipped out of the US in containers over the next few weeks – but I guess I was wrong. However at the price of USD 720 m/t FOB it looks like an attractive price to me.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein

   Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein

 USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia

X

x

   Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein

 USD 435/445 m/t CNF Asia

X

   European MBM 45 protein

   European MBM 50 protein

   European Feathermeal, 75 protein

   European poultry meal, pet food grd

 USD 385/405 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 425/450 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 1050/10700 m/t CNF Asia

x

x

x

x

   Australian MBM 45 protein

   Australian MBM 50 protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 580/590 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 880/890 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 1200/1230 m/t CNF Asia

x

x

x

x

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

   USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 600/610 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 760/780 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 1150/1200 m/t CNF Asia

x

x

x

x

*** see sources note

 

The strong player in the animal protein side of things continues to be pet food grade poultry meal as the end-users of fishmeal are scooping up all the supply that they can find to try to cover much of their fishmeal needs. Poultry meal at USD 1200 m/t is a much better bargain than fishmeal at a minimum that is close to twice that level. Fishmeal users are not all that interested in meat and bone meal so there has not been too much change in MBM and some sellers are saying that, with soymeal prices sliding, there could be room for MBM to move lower in the first quarter of 2015. Feathermeal seems to be moving a little lower already as demand seems to have peaked and prices look like they will slip in coming days.

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

   Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein

 USD 465/475 m/t   

   Feathermeal  80 protein USA

 USD 670/700 m/t         

   Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA

 USD 480/510 m/t  

   Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro

 USD 820/840 m/t

*** see sources note

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Nothing new to report from Peru on the fishing possibilities, at least nothing official as yet, so we are all still just assuming that the next time we see a net in the water for anchovy will be in April/May. Looks like the fishmeal industry will have a very quiet Christmas followed by 12 weeks of more quiet. I guess this is the best time to do all those repairs to the facilities and the fleet that had been put off waiting for a quiet time – it can't get much quieter in Peru than it is at present.

 

According to the MSI Ceres weekly report, many companies will be closed from December 24th until January 05 – not too surprising at all.

 

It looks like there may still be about 20,000 m/t of fishmeal unsold in Peru but it is impossible to know the quality, grade and condition without discussing directly with the producers holding the stock.

 

MSI Ceres made a number of very good points about the future of the fishmeal industry in Peru in this week's report but the one that I thought about the most was their point that the Peruvian fishmeal industry must look beyond fishmeal and diversify into products for human consumption. This same point has been made over and over and over to the fishmeal industry as the share of fishmeal in feed formulations dropped year after year. However, as long as the growth in the feed industry, mainly aquafeed, was sufficient to insure that all the fishmeal produced was consumed then the industry had no worries. But now the industry is in a position that they are not able to produce their prime products: fishmeal and fishoil, and have no fallback position where they can produce something else. Of course, not being a fishmeal producer, that is easy for me to say but still, long-term, as MSI Ceres says, fishmeal producers need to be more than a one product industry.   

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72 protein

2,150

Danish fishmeal

64 protein

1,780

Peru fishmeal

64 protein

2,300

Chile fishmeal

65 protein

2,350

Iceland fishmeal

70 protein

2,000

@Commodity3

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

 

 

   65 protein 

2100/2120 m/t

   65/66 protein

2120/2140 m/t

   67 protein standard steam

2150/2180 m/t

   67 protein SD 150  TVN

2200/2210 m/t

   67 protein SD 120 TVN

2350/2360 m/t

   67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN

2380/2390 m/t

   68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN

2400/2420 m/t

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

2500/2550

   Fish oil, crude drums

2600/2650

   Fish oil, flexi tank

2550/2600

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

3000/3100

*** see sources note

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:

US Grains Council  --- www.grains.org, International Grains Council – www.igc.int

US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org , France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr

EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm,  Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/

Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com, The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com

MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com, International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2014 Wayne S. Bacon