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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN and sometimes wheat
Grain prices were a little confused this week with corn prices doing almost nothing while soybeans moved lower and wheat from everywhere moved higher.
For wheat we had all US types all up: hard red winter by USD 7 m/t and soft red winter by closer to USD 10 m/t. There was a big surprise in the Egypt wheat tender this week as the business split between Poland, France and Romania as Russia was too expensive. The results probably surprised both Poland and France.
USA corn exports this week were higher than expected and this seemed to get the futures market all excited and pushed prices a little higher. Although on the week we were almost unchanged in price from last week. The corn harvest is over 75% completed and the weather forecast for some rain should not have a major effect on the overall harvest. Some experts are saying that with corn not able to get a price rally going perhaps we should be expecting even lower corn prices in coming days. This could certainly happen if there is more bearish news out of China for corn imports and for DDGS imports.
A number of reports this weekend have said that there could be a good corn buying opportunity coming if prices do weaken further.
Soybeans were up a little in the futures market on Friday but still down USD 4 to 5 m/t on the week. US export sales have been quite good but good rains in Argentina and Brazil are making their soil moisture levels for the new crops look good as the planting rolls and rain is pushing prices a tad lower.
The US soybean harvest is almost completed so not much can now damage this year's crop. There does not seem to be much in the news to push prices higher this week – perhaps we will see a little rally once the harvest is complete or perhaps things will just continue to slip lower.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – October 26, 2015
| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
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| Winter wheat | 10 | 37 | 39 | 11 | 3 | |
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| Harvested: | 2015 % | 2014 % | 5 year avge % |
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| Corn | 75 | 44 | 68 |
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| Soybeans | 87 | 68 | 80 |
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| Sorghum | 71 | 55 | 61 |
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| Winter wheat | 83 | 83 | 85 |
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@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – October 26, 2015
| Winter crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % |
| Barley | 31 | 65 | 4 |
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| Planted | 2015 | 2014 |
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| Winter wheat | 78% | 70% |
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| Winter barley | 92% | 87% |
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@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14.50/15 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf South Africa | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $51/52.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $7.50/8.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $7.50/8.00 | Down $0.50 | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $42/44.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $42/44.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | No info |
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| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $19/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 721 | Down 53 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1229 | Down 232 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 675 | Down 8 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 629 | Down 19 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 349 | Down 13 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 614 | Up 5 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2015/January 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 219/221 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 218/222 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/196 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 197/204 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 198/202 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 195/197 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 192/194 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 218/222 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 182/185 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 189/191 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 179/190 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 188/191 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 225/230 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 180/183 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 185/188 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 170/174 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 170/174 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 171/176 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 184/187 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 172/178 | x |
| Corn #2, CNF Asia | USD 217/221 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas or NOLA | USD 193/197 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 145/150 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 351/355 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 391/395 | x |
| Soymeal, CNF Asia | USD 413/420 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 370/375 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 347/352 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 367/371 | X |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 330/336 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 550/560 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 375/380 | X |
| Soybeans #2, CNF Asia | USD 391/397 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 362/368 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 360/365 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 359/363 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 590/600 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Asia, containers | USD 644/648 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt, containers | USD 675/680 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 152/158 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 184/189 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 220/226 m/t | X |
There were a number of comments in trade reports this week that Chinese buyers have pulled back from buying US DDGS due to the Chinese government's anti-dumping investigation of DDGS. The story is that local China ethanol producers have complained about the low cost of imports and the effect that this is having on the domestic China ethanol and DDGS production. The local corn price in China has been higher than world market prices and this has made imported DDGS very attractive. China is the world's largest importer of DDGS, importing just under 5 million m/t from the US in the first eight months of 2015 – imports so far in 2015 are 15 percent higher than all of 2014. As was seen earlier in 2015, if China slows down buying the DDGS prices (and probably corn price) will slide lower.
According to US reports major DDGS producers are sold out for the next couple of months – some for export but much for domestic use.
Historically speaking DDGS prices should move higher after the harvest and into the winter feeding season but demand from China, if it slows, could change the normal price trend.
Of good news to all export buyers has been the drop in container rates with rates moving about USD 10 m/t on some major container routes – this is also seen in corn gluten meal and corn gluten meal where there are some very attractive prices due to lower corn prices and then the lower container freight. However, there has been some talk that container rates will be moving higher again in early 2016.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 444/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
The Asian demand for animal proteins – meat and bone meal in particular – seems to be moving a little higher and buyers have raised their bids a little. At least one trade report says that business is being done at the top end of the price range shown above.
There is no huge rush to buy from users as soymeal prices in Asia are quite weak and this is keeping animal protein prices down but this down trend looks like it may be coming to an end.
The US export market is reported to have been very quiet as has been the domestic US market. However, there have been some comments in the trade reports that MBM is underpriced versus soymeal and that once feed producers are aware of this we could see some movement higher on animal protein prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The Peruvian fishmeal situation is no more clear this week than last – there was supposed to be a meeting on the 29 but about the fishing and perhaps the quota but so far there has been nothing reported in any of the normal channels.
All the can be said is that prices are very high and look to be going higher. We will see what happens when the new quota is actually announced. A low quota, as is expected, will probably keep prices high. Most trade reports say that fishmeal inventories in China are dropping quickly so we may see major Chinese buyers moving into the market as soon as there is a quota announcement – if so, this should keep priced nice and firm.
The overall quote feelings in Peru seem to be that it will be set at no more than 1 million m/t and perhaps less – but this is all just guessing.
Trade reports say that there is still some fishmeal stock in Peru – perhaps 40,000 m/t – but exporters don't seem to have much reason to sell the last of the stocks – we are all just waiting for some word from the Peruvian government and then it will be "game on".
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,710 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,545 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,700 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,800 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,785 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1670/1690 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1700/1720 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1750/1770 m/t | No offers |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1850/1870 m/t | No offers |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1900/1920 m/t | 1900/1920 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1950/1970 m/t | 1930/1950 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2000/2050++ m/t | 1960/1990++ |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1700/1800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2450/2500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
