Sunday, March 27, 2016

Some info

 
The Hammersmith Weekly Report is sent out using "Feedburner" – a service that will bulk mail to subscribers and one that allows you to easily unsubscribe if you no longer need the report – there is an unsubscribe note on the bottom of the weekly report.
 
The report goes to 1,857 people each week via Feedburner and I send another 500 directly from lists on my computer. In addition close to 2500 people per week look up my report on the internet in my funny little Blog that shows only the weekly report.
 
In total, close to 5,000  people look at my weekly report every week – not too bad a number for a report from an old grain trader.
 
Thank you everyone for looking at the report each week.
 
Wayne Bacon 
 
 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------
Corporate Office: Centre of Commerce 200B, 1 Bay St.,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas
-------------------------
Representation Office:
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St. Remy de Provence, France 13210
Phone: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564
Fax: +33.4.5774.7575 SKYPE:.....bacon39A
WWW:.hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Email:.. wbacon@hammersmith.biz

Saturday, March 26, 2016

Weekly report - March 26, 2016

 
HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

Thank you to all the people who had something to add to my comment of last week --  most everyone had the same opinion on social media and all the comments, except one, said that the weekly report was of value --- so I guess that I will continue to do the report, at least for now.

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Corn prices in the US tried to move higher this week but had little success as every small increase seemed to lead to increased selling and lower prices. At the end of the week there was really little or no change in domestic or export corn prices. We do have the USDA Planting Intentions report coming up next week – with most experts saying planting will be up in 2016 – so this should set the trend for corn prices for a little. The market is expecting the higher planting number for corn, so if the report is close to estimates there should be minimal effect on prices but if the USDA reports plantings below the trade estimates then we could see a nice little price rally.

 

One negative factor for corn is the increased production forecast by Argentina that has corn 10 million m/t higher than recent USDA forecasts and Argentina export corn sales are said to be very strong.

 

Soybean and soymeal prices were higher this week with experts saying that it was a rally in soymeal that pulled soybeans higher. Some experts say that it was the high US soymeal export numbers that got the market moving higher while others say it was due to loading delays in Brazil. At least one report this week was saying that with US soymeal at a very large price premium to Brazilian there is little reason for US prices to increase as export demand will not continue.

 

The Brazil soybean harvest is just finishing, delayed a tad by rain, while the Argentina harvest is about to roll out --- there is certainly not going to be any shortage of soybeans for this spring.

 

As with corn prices, the USDA Planting Intentions report will have an effect on US soybean/meal prices, so we will see what happens this coming week.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)

$11.50/12.50

Steady

x

US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT

$19/20.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)

$18/19.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Turkey: 50,000

$20/21.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)

$26/27.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$46/47.00

Down $2.00

X

US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)

$27/28.00

Down $1.00

X

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$23/24.00

Steady

X

US Gulf China: Panamax

$21/22.00

Steady

X

US PNW South Africa

$32/33.00

Steady

x

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$14/15.00

Steady

X

US PNW China: Panamax

$13/14.00

Steady

X

US East Coast Egypt: Panamax

$40/41.00

Steady

x

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$48/49.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$25/26.00

Up $1.00

x

France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000

$27/28.00

Steady

x

France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t

$29/30.00

Up $1.00

X

France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t

$44/45.00

Up $1.00

x

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$21/22.00

Steady

x

Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$23/24.00

Down $1.00

x

Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off

$24/25.00

Down $2.00

X

Argentina to Egypt

$20/21.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t

$18/19.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)

$20/21.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Saudi Arabia

$35/36.00

Up $1.00

x

Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Up $1.00

x

Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t

$23/24.00

Steady

x

Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t

$21/22.00

Steady

x

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t

$23/24.00

Up $1.00

x

Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t

$18/19.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t

$19/20.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Europe

$23/24.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t

$20/21.00

Steady

X

Brazil to Saudi Arabia

$30/31.00

Up $1.00

X

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t

$18/19.00

Up $1.00

X

 

 

 

 

Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t

$14.00/14.50

Up $1.00

X

Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t

$14.00/14.50

Up $1.00

X

Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t

$18/19.00

Up $2.00

x

 

 

 

 

Ukraine to China

$19/20.00

Up $1.00

x

Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)

$22/23.00

Up $1.00

x

Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Down $1.00

x

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)

$10/11.00

Up $1.00

x

Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)

$32/33.00

Down $2.00

x

Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$23/24.00

Steady

x

Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)

$19/20.00

Up $1.00

x

Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)

$11/12.00

Up $2.00

X

Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)

$15/16.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k

$21/22.00

Up $1.00

X

Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t

$24/25.00

Up $1.00

x

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)

$17/18.00

Up $1.00

x

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

406

Up 11

x

Baltic Capesize Index

203

Up 6

x

Baltic Panamax Index

466

Up 3

x

Baltic Supramax Index

473

Up 24

x

Baltic Handisize Index

268

Up 8

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR March/May 2016

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA

 USD 195/199

x

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein

 USD 205/209

x

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 168/172

x

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 162/165

x

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 167/170

x

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 167/169

x

   Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen

 USD 166/168

x

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver

 USD 185/189

x

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 163/166

x

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 164/166

x

   Barley, feed, Argentina

 USD 150/155

x

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 167/170

x

   Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest

 USD 140/145

x

 

 

 

   Corn, FOB NOLA USA

 USD 163/165

x

   Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 169/172

x

   Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2

 USD 202/208

x

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 164/167

x

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 161/164

x

   Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 163/167

x

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 171/173

x

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 165/169

x

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 178/180

x

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 160/162

x

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 322/325

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 347/351

x

   Soymeal, USA CNF Asia

 USD 369/372

x

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam

 USD 325/329

x

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 309/313

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam

 USD 317/322

x

   Soymeal, FOB Brazil

 USD 284/288

x

   Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ

 USD 550/555

x

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 366/370

x

   Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia

 USD 396/401

x

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 340/344

x

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 349/353

x

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 USD 360/365

x

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  540/545 m/t

x

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont.

 USD  588>>574 m/t

x

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont.

 USD  620>>610 m/t

x

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  140/145 m/t

x

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD  169/172 m/t

x

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont

 USD  210/213 m/t

X

 

The US domestic price for DDGS was lower on the week and this translated into export prices of about USD 5 m/t lower. Both corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal were also lower on the weak with most of the weakness seen in May/June as March/April sales have been good and prices steady. The USDA says that the average price for corn gluten meal was only down by USD 1.00 m/t while average corn gluten feed price in the domestic market was up by about USD 1.00 m/t.

 

With the drop in soymeal prices on the week it is difficult to keep any strength in corn by-product prices.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

   Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein

   Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein

   Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein

 USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 380/390 m/t CNF Asia

   Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein

 USD 350/370 m/t CNF Asia

   Australian MBM 45 protein

   Australian MBM 50 protein

   Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein

   Australian Poultry Meal, pet food

 USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia

   USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein

   USA Feathermeal, 80 protein

   USA Poultry Meal, feed grade

   USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade

 USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 450/500 m/t CNF Asia

 USD 730/750 m/t CNF Asia

Meat and bone meal prices form the USA to Asia moved a little higher again this week but prices a couple of months out are said to be as much as USD 30 m/t higher than spot prices. Australia and New Zealand prices are said to be mainly unchanged. The feeling expressed by experts is that MBM prices are going to by touching USD 500 m/t CNF Asia in coming weeks as demand is building but supply is not.  Of course, with soymeal up by about USD 10 m/t on the week it is easy to understand why there is strength in animal proteins.

 

USA domestic prices for both MBM and feathermeal were higher on the week and this trend is expected to continue – at least in the short run.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

There is not a great deal of news out of South America on fishmeal this week – most offices were closed on Thursday and Friday for Easter holidays. Also, many of the senior fishmeal folks are in Shanghai for the JCI Conference and fishmeal/fishoil forum. Perhaps we see some reports of bookings for the next fishing season.

 

Stocks in Peru are said to be getting down to the 40,000 m/t range, so not much left for current buying.

 

About the only new information, in this short work week, is export and import numbers. Peru only shipped 65,000 m/t of fishmeal in January and February with 66 percent going to China with another 12 percent to Germany. Looking at China's imports for the same period, they imported 90,000 m/t with just over 40,000 m/t (44.3%) coming from Peru, followed by 10,300 m/t from Chile (11.4%) – the balance of the imports came from 16 different origins.

 

There was really no change in prices in Peru this week and most of the price changes seen in Europe are due to the change in value for the USD.

  

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,760

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,440

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,470

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,550

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,690

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein 

1300/1310 m/t

 

   65/66 protein

1330/1395 m/t

 

   67% protein standard steam

1350/1370 m/t

No offers

   67% protein 150 TVN

1420/1440 m/t

1430/1450

   67% protein 120 TVN

1500/1520 m/t

1500/1520

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1550/1570 m/t

1550/1570

   68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN

1650/1670 m/t

1650/1670

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

2300/2350

2000/2100

   Fish oil, crude drums

2450/2500

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

2550/2600

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

2800/2850

 

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon