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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Soybeans and soymeal ended the week higher for the first time in three weeks – soybeans were up by a maximum of USD 7 m/t while soymeal was USD 5 to 6 m/t higher. The trade says that prices were pushed higher by good export sales and the softer US$. The current weather is still looking quite good and is having no effect on the market – at least not this week.
Corn finished the week with prices unchanged from the week before and there was really not much excitement in the corn market during the week. Export sales were quite good but still need to be better and the weather is looking good. There is some expectation in the trade that the upcoming USDA WASDE report may show increased yields for US corn and, if so, this could move prices lower for new crop corn. Most corn experts don't seem to be calling for much corn market excitement before the WASDE report on August 12.
On the futures side of things, corn futures for December are close to their lowest level to date making corn look much like a bargain for buyers but tough for farmers.
As noted above, most experts are looking for a calm and quiet market over the next few days --- but then there could be a sudden unexpected change in the weather that could upset this thinking. But for now it looks like corn prices will just trundle along, up a little and down a little, until the next major news event.
Crop condition --- USA and France
| Condition USA July 26, 2016 | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Spring wheat | 2 | 6 | 24 | 58 | 10 |
| Barley | 1 | 3 | 23 | 58 | 15 |
| Corn | 1 | 4 | 19 | 57 | 19 |
| Soybeans | 2 | 5 | 22 | 56 | 15 |
| Sorghum | 1 | 5 | 29 | 54 | 11 |
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| Condition France July 25, 2016 | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Wheat | 9 | 22 | 30 | 36 | 4 |
| Winter barley | 6 | 22 | 30 | 37 | 5 |
| Durum wheat | 16 | 13 | 21 | 40 | 9 |
| Spring barley | 2 | 20 | 25 | 47 | 6 |
| Corn | 3 | 7 | 22 | 62 | 7 |
@USDA and France AgriMer
French wheat and barley condition continues to drop lower…. there is some concern in France that quality milling wheat may have to be imported this year.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $48/49.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW South Africa | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $15/16.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $49/50.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19/19.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $9.50/10.50 | down $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 656 | Down 62 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 768 | Down 127 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 692 | Down 135 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 671 | Down 27 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 399 | Up 16 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August/October 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 183/197 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 196/210 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 157/161 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 164/167 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 167/171 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 185/187 | X |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 185/187 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 205/208 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 156/159 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 156/158 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 147/150 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 148/152 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 175/180 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 172/176 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 182/185 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 176/181 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 181/184 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 172/176 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 190/194 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 174/176 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 178/181 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 150/155 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 413/418 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 438/443 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 412/417 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 380/384 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 408/412 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 391/394 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 540/550 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 400/404 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 394/398 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 421/425 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 420/425 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 665/675 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt | USD 725/735 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 160/165 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 197/201 m/t | x |
DDGS export prices slipped a little lower this week with the trade reporting that there has been quite good buying interest from Egypt. This buying seems to be holding the market from moving lower as US domestic prices moved lower much more than export prices. According to USDA reports this week, the domestic prices were lower by USD 7 to 15 m/t but this size of drop was not seen in export prices.
Just as a matter of interest European DDGS prices, for EU production, is at about USD 245 m/t, much higher than the cost would be for US DDGS to Europe but with GMO restrictions the US DDGS exports to Europe are limited.
USA export corn gluten meal prices were down by about USD 10 m/t while corn gluten feed was a little higher from some sellers with the USDA saying that domestic prices were up by about USD 9 m/t on average – it is interesting to see CGF prices moving against the trend to lower prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 810/830 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 660/670 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/815 m/t CNF Asia |
The recent rally in US export meat and bone meal prices seems to come to an end as the pressure of lower soymeal seems to have stopped any move higher. However there doesn't seem to be any weakness in prices out of Australia and New Zealand as tight supplies keep their prices firm. Tight supplies don't seem to be affecting buyer's bids much as it is reported that most Asian buyers are bidding well below current market prices.
US domestic prices for MBM were down on the week as was poultry meal. Trade experts are saying that prices for animal proteins should continue lower as it is impossible for them to buck the trend of lower prices that is seen in soymeal. It is much too easy for US buyers to switch to the lowest cost protein.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
So here we are with fishing almost over in Peru which will leave close to 50% of the quota uncaught. The total catch will probably be just over 900,000 m/t when all is said and done.
Peru is closed at present for their national holidays – July 27 to Aug 01 - so there is not too much in news or comment from the trade in the country but there will certainly be lots said next week.
There was some news out of Peru that Chinese buyers have been bidding a little above the current indications prices for supply but that sellers are not booking anything for now – probably in the hopes of much higher prices. Of course, with the limited supply of Peru fishmeal available it is not too difficult to imagine much higher prices.
In Chile the fishing has been quite good but the same spawning problem the hit Peru will affect Chile so the quota for anchovy will be lifted very soon. To date, Chile has landed a total of about 590,000 m/t against the total quota of 1.4 million m/t of fish.
There was a report in the press this week concerning the bankruptcy of China Fishery Group Ltd and the difficulty that they may have in recovering their investment in Peru or for that matter even in finding a buyer for their Peru fishmeal business.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,790 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,500 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,590 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,690 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,870 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1610/1620 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1640/1650 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1660/1670 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1690/1700 m/t | 1650/1670 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1720/1740 m/t | 1680/1700 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1760/1780 m/t | 1760/1780 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1850/1870 m/t | 1800/1820 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2100/2150 | 1650/1700 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2250/2300 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2700/2800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
