Corporate Office: Centre of Commerce 200B
PO Box N-3944, Nassau Bahamas
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Representation Office
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, France 13210
Phone: 33 9 7044 4881 Mobile: 33 6 8068 4564
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 29, 2017
This report is coming to you live from Bogota, Colombia – Colombia is quite a country and a large grain/protein importer. The local grain/feed people are certainly very knowledgeable on how to buy grain and proteins. Also, they certainly also have very complicated domestic logistics problems --- Colombia looks like it is about 90 percent mountains and everything moves by truck --- a great many trucks. Driving around Colombia you hardly ever find a flat spot. It has been a great trip – back to France tomorrow.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
It was a down week for grain prices this week – everything was down a little: corn prices were down by about USD 2 m/t, soybeans were down by USD 3 m/t, soymeal down by USD 8 m/t and even soft winter wheat was down by USD 6 m/t and hard red winter down by about USD 5 m/t.
Even though the USDA corn condition dropped this week the good weather offset the drop in condition so corn prices slipped lower. However, there has been some talk about lower corn yield so we may not see quite as much corn price weakness in coming days. Some experts are saying that corn prices may be reasonably steady until the next USDA yield estimates.
Soybeans gave back some of their recent price rally this week which was probably just a short term dip in what looks like a market that wants to move higher. There was some question about dry weather than could tend to push soybean prices back up again but we need to see what happens over the weekend.
Like soybeans, wheat gave back some of the recent price rally but overall no one expects much weakness in spring wheat prices as yields are looking well below earlier estimates. Winter wheat just followed spring wheat lower.
Crop progress and condition --- USA and France
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14/14.50 | Up $0.50 |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $24/25.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $51/52.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $20/21.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $36/37.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to South Africa 25/30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: 30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $19.50/20.00 | Steady |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $13/14.00 | Steady |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $24/26.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $34/36.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $21/23.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $20/21.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $36/37.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 933 | Down 44 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1139 | Down 15 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1258 | Down 149 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 812 | Down 23 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 498 | Down 1 |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2017/October 2017
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 201/210 |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein -NOLA | USD 232/253 high protein premium |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182/186 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 193/196 |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 191/195 |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 198/200 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 186/191 new crop |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 174/177 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 175/177 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 181/185 new crop Dec |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 163/166 |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 215/220 |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 161/163 |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 168/171 |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 148/153 Aug/Oct |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 155/159 Aug/Oct |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 171/174 |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 184/190 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 171/174 |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 166/170 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 188/191 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 159/162 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 350/355 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 375/380 |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 348/352 |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 322/327 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 338/342 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 314/318 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB India | USD 360/365 |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 385/389 |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 374/379 |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 389/393 |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 390/394 |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 600/610 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 136/140 m/t |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 178>>173 m/t |
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Nearby DDGS prices are strong due mainly to logistics --- strong demand, full pipelines, backed up container loading --- just too much business to ship in a few weeks so, as I have mentioned before, buyers are having to pay up in order to get any nearby shipments. However, at present, September and October look much better than August for DDGS buyers.
With corn prices slipping lower there could be some weakness in DDGS prices and also in corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal --- but as I mentioned last week CGM could be pushed higher by the increase in fishmeal prices.
The USDA weekly report shows that corn gluten feed prices were down by about USD 1 m/t on the other hand the USDA shows domestic corn gluten meal prices were up by about USD 8 m/t. The USDA also shows domestic DDGS prices up on average by USD 5 m/t. These domestic price changes have not as yet been seen in the export market.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50% protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60% protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80% protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 400/410 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/810 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 620/630 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
There didn't seem to be too much happening in the export animal protein business this week. Demand was steady but so was supply so prices remained mainly unchanged. There was a renderers meeting in Australia last week so the main sellers were out of the market, making things even quieter.
Prices out of the US were also unchanged but domestic demand was stronger so we may just see a move higher in export prices. But there were some trade comments that the little bump in domestic price is nothing that will hang around for long.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The northern Peru fishing season is officially over on Sunday and the total catch will probably be around 2.4 million m/t, about what the experts had been saying for the past while. We will probably end up with total fishmeal production in the 560,000 m/t range.
Things have been quiet in Peru as there is really not much left to sell and producers are very busy trying to get a whole bunch of export shipments made. All the big buyers have bought most all that they want with only a few small guys left to sniff around for supplies.
The market is expected to switch now to thinking about the next fishing season and, while buyers may have to pay higher prices for the little bit of fishmeal available, they will be bidding lower for supplies in the next season.
Needless to say, prices will continue to move higher over the next few weeks as buyers have to fight over the small stocks left and the small amounts coming from the south of Peru.
There was a not in the news that CP Thailand intends to reduce its fishmeal use in aquafeed to no more than 5% over the next three years. According to CP they have reduced the use of fishmeal in shrimp feed from 35% to 7 % over the past 20 years.
The interesting thing about fishmeal is that, even though everyone works very hard to reduce fishmeal usage, every ton of fishmeal is sold every year with the growth in the overall feed industry more than enough to keep total fishmeal demand matched with production.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,490 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,360 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,250 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,300 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,460 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1100/1120 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1150/1170 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1200/1220 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1390/1400 m/t | 1380/1390 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1410/1420 m/t | 1400/1410 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1430/1440 m/t | 1420/1430 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1450/1460 m/t | 1440/1450 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 1200/1250 | 1150/1200 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 1300/1350 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 1400/1450 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 1700/1800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2017 Wayne S. Bacon
