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WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 27, 2018
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Again this week, soybeans/soymeal were the hot item – soybean prices have rallied by USD 18 to 20 m/t in the past two weeks and the rally may not be over. As was reported last week, the continued heavy rains in Brazil have badly delayed the harvest of the soybean crop and is making the planting of the corn crop more difficult. However, a couple of weather reports have said the rains will stop shortly and while that may get the soybeans harvested what will happen with the planting of the second corn crop. You can't put corn in the ground if the soybeans are still there.
Corn had a quite week this week. Export prices were up a little due to the weak US dollar and the possibility of lower corn exports for Brazil and Argentina added some strength but not much.
Corn prices seem to be stuck in a bit of a trading range – up a little then down a little – as there has not been much news to move the market. There was the news this week about problems with the South African corn crop due to a lack of rainfall which will affect their production and, of course, their exports. South African corn exports could be down by as much as 1 million m/t this year. This is perhaps not much by international standards but is quite a lot when you look at regional corn importing markets. South Africa has exported about 1.8 million m/t and, if you ignore Japan, most of the exports are to African countries – countries that import corn most every year.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $40/41.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | New | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 25/30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.50/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20.00/20.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Bangladesh: 45,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to India: 45/50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Turkey: coaster (1,000 disch) | $28/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $43/45.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Yemen: 50,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1219 | Up 94 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1772 | Up 279 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1492 | Up 159 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 900 | Down 11 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 577 | Down 7 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR February 2018/April 2018
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 191/194 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein -NOLA | USD 209/214 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 184/187 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 193/195 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 195/198 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 199/201 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 177/181 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 181/184 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 198/200 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 183/186 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 190/194 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 164>>161 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 179>>175 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 164/167 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 168/171 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 191/197 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 176/180 | x |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 169/172 | x |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 167/172 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 171/175 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 204/207 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 387>>377 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 412>>402 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 406/410 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 367/371 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 394/398 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 356/362 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 375/378 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 375/378 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 385/388 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 388/392 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 605 >>590 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170 >>160 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 216 >>200 May m/t | x |
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All corn by-product prices were higher this week for nearby shipment as all the logistics problems to export ports have not yet been solved. There doesn't seem to be any problem with supply and most buyers have backed off on new purchases due to the current high price levels. Buyers do feel that prices should be lower, and they are probably right.
One factor that could affect the corn gluten meal price is the end to fishmeal production for now in Peru. For some aqua feed formulations CGM can be increased and fishmeal decreased, and this could lead to a jump in export demand for CGM, but we will see. I am not a nutritionist so may be exaggerating the effect that a lack of fishmeal could have.
In the US domestic market, the rally in the soymeal price is causing buyers to switch to DDGS and this has pushed DDGS prices in the US up by as much as USD 10 m/t. As long as soymeal stays strong then DDGS prices will just follow along.
As I said last week, buyers would be better to look out into April/May for any new purchases that is when the prices seem to be back to their normal relationship.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 900/910 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 460/470 to Indonesia USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 580/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 930/940 m/t CNF Asia |
One has to wonder what the effect on animal proteins the shortage of fishmeal will have. End-users who can use poultry meal or meat and bone in place of fishmeal will be rushing into the market to scoop up some supplies which should mean higher export prices.
Meat and bone meal prices to major destinations in Asia did creep a little higher this week – prior to the fishmeal news. The current move in prices was due to good demand – demand that should be even larger next week.
Poultry meal prices have continued to move higher in export markets, strictly on demand and the export demand is reported by the Jacobsen Report to be helping push up US domestic prices for poultry meal --- should be even higher soon.
I was talking to a meat and bone meal producer in Paraguay on Friday, he was telling me that his price into Asia these days is at about USD 390/400 m/t and that he just can't compete with MBM from other origins. Perhaps the expected jump in demand will make sales easier for him.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Well that is it – fishing is over in Peru. It looks like the total catch will be at about 650,000 m/t producing 148,000 m/t of fishmeal and about 21,000 m/t of fishoil. The quota will be under by about 850,000 m/t or 195,000 m/t of fishmeal and 27,000 m/t of fishoil.
The prices shown below didn't change much but I am sure that they will for next week. I had a call yesterday from a fishmeal buyer from Egypt who was in Mauritania trying to finalize on a fishmeal contract when the seller upped the price by USD 300 m/t. The poor buyer didn't know what had happened to jack up the price until I explained to him what the Peru situation was. I assume that we will see every origin moving their fishmeal and fishoil prices higher in the next few days.
The fishing was stopped in Peru because the anchovy are moving closer their next spawning period and it is not good for future of the biomass to be catching anchovy as spawning approaches.
According to trade sources in Peru, about 160,000 m/t of fishmeal had been presold so with production of just less than 150,000 m/t the producers will come up a little short and there will certainly be nothing available for new sales.
I suspect that fishmeal users will be looking everywhere in the next few weeks to find some supply and that prices should reflect the fact that supply will be limited for quite a while. So, if you haven't covered your fishmeal needs you could be looking at much higher prices or possible lower quality fishmeal from other origins. Good luck!.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
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| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,840 | Up $10 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,620 | Up $40 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,605 | Up $5 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,655 | Up $5 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,840 | Up $10 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1500/1520 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1550/1570 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1650/1670 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1850/1870 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1900/1920 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1950/1970 m/t | 2000/2050 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2000/2020 m/t | 2050/2100 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2500/2550 | 2000/2100 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2600/2650 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2700/2750 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2018 Wayne S. Bacon
